Good afternoon! It's pre-Oscars Friday, and time for one last chat.
And, as we hope for some lively speeches on Oscar night, here's an interesting statistic: In a recent analysis of more than a thousand archived Academy Award acceptance speeches, the most-thanked person is Steven Spielberg, with 42 mentions. Right after him is Harvey Weinstein and James Cameron. God, for some reason, is down in sixth place.
News from the Academy: There will be, apparently, a great deal of singing in this year's ceremony. In addition to performances of the nominated Best Songs, we'll be treated to unidentified tunes from Lady Gaga, Jennifer Hudson and Anna Kendrick. I am a little nervous about this.
And surely Neil Patrick Harris has some sort of big musical number planned; something along the lines of his actually quite fabulous Tony Award songs. But he's not talking.
How can the Oscars telecast be enlivened a bit, other than a lot of singing? I have ideas -- do you?
1. Have winners accept their awards on an elevated platform, which begins to slowly sink with every name they thank -- but rises if the winner says something witty.
2. Have presenters arrive on stage via a large scary staircase. The BAFTAs used to do this, and it was mesmerizing. You've never seen A-list actresses, in long dresses and heels, look so terrified.
3. Of course, Colin Firth or somebody equally gallant should be waiting at the bottom of that staircase.
4. A couple of years ago, there was some idea floated that the nominees' mothers would tweet during the ceremony. This didn't happen, but it's a wonderful idea that I think moms everywhere could get behind.
5. For example, if my mom were tweeting right now, she'd tell me to sit up straight. Which I am doing.
6. All awards should be presented by actual comedians, who develop their own material. No committee-scripted banter.
7. John Travolta should introduce everyone by name.
Meanwhile, is anyone else as horrified as I am that E.L. James is, apparently, going to Seize More Control of the upcoming "50 Shades of Grey" sequels? Which will make them EVEN WORSE?
Oops, sorry; didn't mean to pop up Spielberg again:
I guess the new movie will be called "Fifty Shades Duller."
Ok then. Let's talk Best Picture. This is actually, for once, a race with some suspense in it; there are a couple of front-runners, but no clear winner (as is usually the case). "Boyhood" is the sentimental favorite -- everyone loves this movie. "Birdman" has been winning all the pre-Oscar awards. "Grand Budapest Hotel" is the dark horse. "American Sniper" is the box-office favorite. It's not unthinkable that "Selma," if the Academy watches its screeners, could pull an upset. And you can't rule out "The Imitation Game," which seemed, sight unseen, like the most Oscar-friendly of the bunch.
I'm thinking, if I had to put my money on it, that "Birdman" will win. But I should warn you that my Oscar-prediction skills are quite sketchy.
One year, I got 22 out of 24 categories right. One year, I got 8 out of 24 right. (That was a very depressing year, with people calling me up complaining that I caused them to lose their Oscar pool.) Generally I can pull off 15-16 right, but you never know.
And really, NOBODY knows those short film categories.
Some general theories for the tricky categories: The loudest film wins Sound Mixing. (That would be "Interstellar.") The grimmest documentary usually wins (actually, they're all pretty grim this year). One of the two screenplay awards goes to a movie that isn't getting anything else (probably "Whiplash").
Hi, Ron. Best Actor is the only one of the acting races that isn't a foregone conclusion -- Julianne Moore, J.K. Simmons, and Patricia Arquette have the other three sewn up, and let's just hope they have some good speeches planned.
Michael Keaton is absolutely the sentimental favorite -- it's hard to imagine the Academy missing the opportunity to award a former Batman for starring in a movie about a former Birdman. But then again, Eddie Redmayne has been sweeping up the pre-Oscar awards, and is playing the kind of role (physical transformation, real-life inspiration story) that Academy voters love. Plus he's been giving some pretty sweet speeches on the circuit. I still think it might be Keaton, but I'm likely wrong. Definitely not Steve Carell or Bradley Cooper -- it's not their year. Benedict Cumberbatch has an outside shot, but not much of a one.
Let me also add, though, that the Best Actor category was amazingly crowded this year, with several performances that definitely would have made the cut any other year: David Oyelowo, "Selma"; Timothy Spall, "Mr. Turner"; Ralph Fiennes, "The Grand Budapest Hotel,"; Jake Gyllenhaal, "Nightcrawler." Take a bow, gentlemen.
I think you're right. The Academy often votes that way. But not always. I remember the year Gloria Stuart was nominated for "Titanic" (yes, I might be old), and everyone was writing about what a wonderful story it made to have a star of 1930s Hollywood, who left the movies for decades, to return to the screen and get a nomination in her 80s But then, astonishing everyone, she didn't win. So you never know.
Anybody else reading the Hollywood Reporters "Brutally Honest Oscar Ballots" series. They've been interviewing anonymous Academy members about how they're filling out their ballots. Funny, but an interesting wake-up call; there's a lot of people voting for their friends, or voting for the only movie of the five nominees that they've actually seen.
Here's a nice little Oscar-night story to watch: Alexandre Desplat, the French-born composer, has six previous nominations (for movies like "The King's Speech," "Argo," "Philomena," "The Queen") and has never won. This year, he's nominated twice, for the scores of "Grand Budapest Hotel" and "The Imitation Game," meaning he's competing against himself. He's got to win this year, right? I think for "Grand Budapest."
And, speaking of music, "Everything Is Awesome" will be performed on Oscar night by Tegan and Sara, along with the comedy/music trio The Lonely Island. EVERYONE will be humming this song afterwards. I'm humming it right now. Damn.
But I think "Glory," from "Selma" will win best song. Just a hunch.
Another Oscar story that I'm fond of: Milena Canonero, the costume designer whose credits stretch back to 1971's "A Clockwork Orange," won her first Oscar 40 years ago for "Barry Lyndon." She's favored to win again this weekend, for "The Grand Budapest Hotel."
I can't tell if this would be a record (40 years between Oscars), but it would be pretty impressive nonetheless. She's won two others, for "Marie Antoinette" and "Chariots of Fire."
Let's talk screenplay awards . . . Odd that "Whiplash" is in the adapted screenplay category, as it's an original story based on a short film that director Damien Chazelle made in order to finance the feature version. So it's adapted from . . . his own idea. Anyway, the screenplay categories tend to be the place where a bone is tossed to movies that aren't winning elsewhere, and I'm thinking "Whiplash" might benefit here? (Then again, it's likely to win supporting actor.)
Or "American Sniper" might get the nod. Or "Imitation Game," which is an elegant screenplay. Not a chance for the other two in this category: "The Theory of Everything" and "Inherent Vice."
For original screenplay, I'm thinking "Grand Budapest." But this is a pretty interesting bunch of contenders, and "Birdman" or "Boyhood" might win out. (If one of them does
, consider it a decent predictor of Best Picture.)
Animated feature, with no Pixar movie in the mix this year, is another tricky one; with "The Lego Movie" snubbed, the nominees are a mix of big-studio offerings (Big Hero 6, How To Train Your Dragon 2) and lesser-known and possibly quite artful films from overseas ("The Tale of the Princess Kaguya," from Japan; "Song of the Sea," from Ireland). I haven't seen all the nominees, but I'm thinking "How to Train Your Dragon 2," a terrific sequel, might take it.
Getting near the end of the chat; anyone want to toss in a prediction or two?
I'd like to award a few Oscars of my own. Best Nominated Performance in a Film Almost Nobody Saw: Marion Cotillard, heartbreakingly good in "Two Days, One Night." (She might have won, in a non-Julianne-Moore year.)
Best Documentary That I Have Absolutely No Idea Why It Wasn't Nominated: Steve James' "Life Itself," a wonderfully moving tribute to the late Roger Ebert. (Who probably, now that I think of it, would have had a theory on why it wasn't nominated. We miss you, Roger.)
Most Beautiful Cinematography That Likely Won't Win: Dick Pope's, for "Mr. Turner." (Maybe it will win. But I think it'll be "Birdman," for all that one-shot wizardry. "Mr. Turner," though, definitely had the year's most exquisite light and color.)
Wrapping up now, but do join me on Oscar night! (And, if any of you had problems with this chat in our newly re-launched seattletimes.com, please email me and I'll report it: mmacdonald@seattletimes.com.) I'll be kicking off with red-carpet chat (oh, I do love me a nice gown) at 4pm; those who just want to talk about the ceremony can join in at 5:30 p.m. See you then!
